An Econometric Analysis of the Factors Affecting Sustainable Agricultural Development in Iraq for the period (1990-2020) | ||
Kirkuk University Journal For Agricultural Sciences | ||
Volume 14, Issue 3, September 2023, Pages 360-374 PDF (1.35 M) | ||
Document Type: Research Paper | ||
DOI: 10.58928/ku23.14336 | ||
Authors | ||
Liyth I. Kh. Abdulah* ; Bassim F. Latif* | ||
Department of Economic and Agricultural Extension, College of Agriculture, Tikrit University, Tikrit, IRAQ. | ||
Abstract | ||
Agricultural investments, agricultural capital accumulations and average per capita agricultural product are considered as important factors in raising levels of sustainable agricultural development, and it is important to quantify the relationship among these factors. The study aimed to measure the impact of some factors affecting sustainable agricultural development in Iraq. The variables used in this study are agricultural investment, accumulated agricultural capital and the average per capita agricultural product as independent variables, while sustainable agricultural development represents the dependent variable. The data for these variables are the time series covered the period from 1990 to 2020 obtained from Ministry of Planning - Central Statistical Organization (COS), Statistical Group for the years (1990-2020). The Johansen's cointegration method was used to estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship among the study variables, and the Toda-Yamamato methodology was used to test the causality. The results showed the weak levels of sustainable agricultural development in Iraq during the period (1990-2020), as it did not exceed (0.160), and the reason for this may be due to the failure of most development indicators to keep pace with the increase in population as well as the unstable political and security conditions that faced Iraq during this period. Also, there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among these variables, as an average per capita agricultural product can causes the sustainable agricultural in the long-run, which requires the Ministry of Agricultural to promote the agricultural sector and pay more attention to the agricultural product, which seems to be one of the sources of sustainable agricultural development in the long-run. The research also recommends encouraging agricultural investments and overcoming obstacles towards targeted investments to promote the agricultural sector, especially investment in agricultural land reclamation, encouraging agricultural workers to maintain their work. | ||
Keywords | ||
Johansen’ s co-integration,,; ,،Toda-Yamamoto causality,,; ,،Sustainable Agricultural Development,,; ,،Agricultural Investment,,; ,،Agricultural Capital Accumulation | ||
References | ||
[1] Shukr, A.S. and Obaid, B.H., 2020. Economic Analysis of the Most Important Factors Affecting Sustainable Agricultural Development in Iraq for The Period 2000-2017. Al Kut Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 12(37), 338–362.
[2] Al-Hamdani, B.K., 2020. The extent to which Sustainable Development concepts are included in Social Textbooks for the intermediate stage from the point of view of Social School Teachers, Journal of Humanities, 37(4).
[3] Al-Tamimi, R.R. and Al-Saadi, H.H., 2020. Sustainable Educational Development: Ideas and Studies, Dar Al-Safa for Distribution and Publishing, Amman.
[4] Omrane, A., 2013, Social Entrepreneurship and Sustainable Development: The Role of Business Models. Available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2232438.
[5] Al-Haddad, H.M., 2014, The Impact of Total Quality Management on Sustainable Development in Higher Education in Iraq, University of Baghdad, Journal of College of Economic Sciences, Issue of the Joint Scientific Conference.
[6] Delaiglesia, J.R., 2006. Institutional Bottlenecks for Agricultural Development, OECD, Development Centre, p.10.
[7] Al-Ashram, M. 2010. Biodiversity, Sustainable Development and Food (globally and in the Arab world), Center for Arab Unity Studies, Beirut, p. 72.
[8] Zogheib, M. and Zina, K., 2009. Sustainable Agricultural Environment and Genetically Modified Products, Journal of Economic and Administrative Research, Issue 5, Algeria, p. 135.
[9] Arab Organization for Agricultural Development 2005. Arab Agricultural Development Strategy for the Next Two Decades, www.aoad.org/strategy/.
[10] Hussein, S.A., 2018. Sustainable Agricultural Development in Al-Hasakah Governorate (A Geographical Study), University of Duhok, Journal for Humanities and Social Sciences, 21(1), 226-235.
[11] Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J., 1987. Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 55(2), 251–276.
[12] Johansen, S. and Juselius, K., 1990. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
[13] Bhaskara, R.B.; Rup, T. and Chaitanya, V.K., 2008. Financial Development and Output Growth Rates: Another Approach, MPRA Papers, 1, 1-39.
[14] Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto, T., 1995. Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly İntegrated Processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66(1–2), 225–250.
[15] Ministry of Planning, Central Statistical Organization (COS), Statistical Group for the years (1990-2020).
[16] Zeidan, A.A., 2005. An Economic Study to show the Impact of Agricultural Investment on the Growth of the Agricultural Sector in Iraq for the period 1980-2000, MS.c thesis, College of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Mosul, Iraq.
[17] Abdel-Hussein, A.J., Abd, M.J. & Rahi, W.R. 2023. The global event (agriculture, industry, oil) on the gross domestic growth in Iraq for the period 1990-2020, Warith Scientific Journal, 5, special issue, 157-165.
[18] Nasrullah, M., Rizwanullah, M., Yu, X., Jo, H., Sohail, M. & Liang, L. 2021. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Method to Study the Effects of Climate Change and Other Factors on Rice Production in Korea, Journal of Water & Climate Change, 12(12), 1-16. | ||
Statistics Article View: 855 PDF Download: 84 |