Time series analysis of incoming water volumes to Mosul dam from Tigris river and use it for prediction | ||
| Al-Rafidain Engineering Journal (AREJ) | ||
| Article 6, Volume 22, Issue 1, February 2014, Pages 27-39 PDF (0 K) | ||
| DOI: 10.33899/rengj.2014.87029 | ||
| Author | ||
| Younis Najib Saeed | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Data of monthly volumes of discharges reaching Mosul Dam reservoir for a period of (15) years, multiplied by (12) month and thus get a time series consisting of (180) value for monthly volumes of discharges are organized and collected for years ( 1985 – 1999 ). A synthetic time series were obtained by applying multiplicative decomposition of a time series method. Where normal method (which depends on the values of the two components (trend and seasonal) only) was applied on the historical data after conversion to the normal distribution , and the standard error (MAPE) of this method was (39%). For the purpose of improving the results were an amendment in this research on this method by using the modified method in this research which adopting the values of components other than the series (cycles and random) and enter them in the calculation the values of synthetic time series by multiplying their approximate values in the results of the values of synthetic time series extracted by the normal method above , in terms of improved the error measure value (MAPE) of the modified method to (32%). The results showed the effectiveness of the modified method used in this research in the prediction of incoming water volumes for years ( 2000 – 2004 ), where tests showed conformity (average, standard deviation, autocorrelation coefficient, density analysis) and there is a match between the predicted values with historical values. | ||
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