Who will be the FIFA World Champion in 2022 in Qatar | ||
| Al-Rafidain Journal For Sport Sciences | ||
| Volume 26, Issue 81, October 2023, Pages 451-470 PDF (1.27 M) | ||
| Document Type: Research Paper | ||
| DOI: 10.33899/rjss.2023.135629.1103 | ||
| Authors | ||
| zeiad yahya alawee* 1; Basel. Thanoon2 | ||
| 1فرع العلوم الریاضیة/کلیة التربیة البدنیة وعلوم الریاضة /جامعة الموص/وزارة التعلیم العالی والبحث العلمی/ العراق | ||
| 2College of Computer Sciences and Mathematics / University of Mosul | ||
| Abstract | ||
| In this paper, discrete-state Markov chains are used to obtain the winning probability through equilibrium and to estimate the Markov win probability value to predict the winners of the 2022 FIFA World Cup by modeling the historical participation of the participating teams in the 23rd FIFA World Cup which will be held in Qatar in November 2022. We suggest a strength index based on some factors: the number of times participated in the World Cup, the number of times they reached the top four, and the number of times the team won first place, in addition to the factor of the ground and the audience (host). Predictive values are obtained for the teams that will top the tournament, which will qualify for the sixteenth round, which will qualify for the quarter-finals, semi-finals, and then the final Matches, which were arranged on the website of each team within its participation in the 2022 Napkin and according to the groups selected for it by FIFA. Through this indicator, researchers were able to identify a model for participation in football. The teams within the rounds and their location in the round (16), the final, the quarter-finals, and to the final matches, gave us satisfactory and realistic results about the participation of each team and its role in the previous tournaments. It also gave us future space for an application to work on the rest of the competitions for team games such as handball, basketball, and volleyball | ||
| Keywords | ||
| football; World Cup; Markov chains; probability | ||
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